how is oil dependent on fiscal cliff deal or no deal? >> well, i think that's the biggest short-term burden that crude oil and most of the commodities have right now. the biggest factor is if no deal is done by year end, the possibility of the u.s. slipping into a recession in the first half, greatly increases significantly. if that does that, you can see crude oil prices back off to that short-term support right around 86. i think overhead we're met with about a 91 resistance. the volume and also the participants in the market are going to be significantly less as a result of these fiscal cliff worries. >> we're going to sort of trend right around here -- it doesn't look like we're going to get a deal before year end of any great significance. that being said, we may get one last year. do we trade in line right here? >> so we're going to trade probably 91 on the upside, 86 on the low side. i think once a deal is done, you're going to see a reemergence of a risk-on rally. i think that's where crude oil breaks out to the upside. we start